Short Suit Total

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Two  balanced hands typically need 33 HCP for slam.  With a trump fit and shortness, tricks may be available with less HCP.  Ruffs can provide extra tricks.  Trumps can act as a stopper.  The hands below have a combined 20 HCP, but can take 12 tricks if hearts break 2-1, a 78% chance.

 
These hands illustrate the trick taking power of a trump fit with shortness and working HCP.  Note that South has nothing wasted opposite North's spade singleton.  North has nothing wasted opposite South's diamond singleton.  All honors are working.  In the hands below, North has wasted values in spades, and South has wasted values in diamonds.

 
North-South have the same 20 HCP, but their hands don't fit well together.  It isn't clear 10 tricks are available.  

How many tricks are available playing in a trump fit often depends on the locations of honors (are the hands fitting well together?) and the length of each partner's shortest suit (when you can begin ruffing).  Splinter Bids help your partnership assess whether your high cards are working (fitting well with your partner's hand).  The concept of Short Suit Total is used to estimate the number of tricks available based on working HCP and the combined shortness of the two hands.  

When your partner has opens a major and you respond with a Splinter Bid, your partner knows you have a singleton or a void.  Since a major suit opening bid promises a 5+ card suit, opener will have a doubleton, a singleton, or a void.  If opener's doubleton (or shorter) is in a different suit than responder's short suit, the combined shortness of the partnership's hands will be 3 or less (a doubleton in one hand, a singleton in the other).  A doubleton opposite a singleton gives you a Short Suit Total of 3 (2 + 1).   

To estimate tricks based on the Short Suit Total and Working HCP, you subtract the Short Suit Total from 13.  The provides an estimate of the tricks available with 20 Working HCP.  Add a trick to the estimate for each 3 additional working HCP.  For example, a Short Suit Total of 3 suggests 20 Working HCP will provide 10 tricks. (13 -3 = 10)  6 additional Working HCP (a total of 26) may put you in the slam zone.  

The table below estimates the number of tricks available based on the partnership's Short Suit Total and the partnership's Working HCP.  Tricks will vary depending on the lie of the cards.  When using the estimate in the table, it is helpful to consider a range from 1 less than the estimate to 1 more than the estimate.

Splinter Bids are a great way to show shortness and a trump fit, and help your partner assess whether their HCP are working.  Splinter Bids position your partner to consider the partnership's Short Suit Total to assess whether they should look for a slam.  To learn more about Short Suit Total and Splinter Bids, see the following aticles by Andrew Gumperz.

1. "Limit Bids: Evaluating Hands For Slam"
2. "Limit Bids: Evaluating Hands for Slams Part 2"
3. "Limit Bids: Evaluating Hands for Slams Part 3"    
4. "Limit Bids: Evaluating Hands for Slam Part 4"